Return to Nappy Valley (again)

For background on this, see this post, this post, this post and this post for my consideration of the Nappy Valley phenomenon.

I noticed that some data on internal migration in the UK was available from ONS for the year ending June 2012, that looks at the level of migration to and from each Local Authority in the United Kingdom by different age brackets (and also gender). Unfortunately, the data was presented in four age groups which doesn't really allow much analysis (everyone aged 21 to 64 are grouped together). Digging a bit further (or clicking on a few hyperlinks) I obtained the raw data and pulled out the in-and-out flow for Tower Hamlets for people of every age. Now, the data isn't from a census, so will never be 100% accurate, but as an ONS data set should be pretty robust, though they aren't accompanied by a disclosure on the accuracy of the estimate.

Plotting the gross inflows as positive numbers and outflows as negative numbers, on the chart below it looks that the age profile of immigration in Tower Hamlets is pretty similar for those arriving and those leaving. In total 21,000 people arrived in Tower Hamlets and 23,000 left for pastures new in the UK.  

Figure 1 Gross inflows and outflows by age July 2011-June 2012

However, when we plot the figure for net migration a distinctive pattern emerges and one I believe that is consistent with the Nappy Valley hypothesis. Until the age of 18 (that is from 0-17), more children leave Tower Hamlets than arrive. Every year, there are nearly 1,500 pre-school age children leaving the borough and only half that number moving into the area. 163 net children leave at age 4 and only 38 at age 5. It appears that parents evacuate their children from LBTH before they reach the age of 5.

Figure 2 Gross inflows and outflows by age July 2011-June 2012



The age at which the largest number of incomers arrived (gross and net) was 24. At the magic age of 29, the inflow becomes a net departure from the borough and this continues for all ages with one exception (LBTH very popular with 58 year olds),  though the greatest net numbers departing are those age 29 to 45.

Looking at the net outflow for bands of five years (eg a group of those aged 30,31,32,33,34 or 32,33,34,35,36), the greatest net outflow is for 31-35 year olds (inclusive) and in 2012 the net outflow was 1,363. It's not definite, but I think these might be what sociologists call 'breeders'.

So, where do the children go? Of the 1,500 under 5s that left London in 2012, 1,000 went to other London boroughs.

182 - Newham
95 - Redbridge
80 - Hackney
72 - Barking and Dagenham
58 - Greenwich
55 - Waltham Forest

The first non-London destination is East Hertfordshire, the 11th most common destination, with 25 children leaving to live in places such as Ware, Buntingford and Sawbridgeworth.

Alas the figures are for all of Tower Hamlets and not just Wapping, but does what it suggests ring true for you?